The Cassandra Effect

Translating “blood lessons” to the public
by Brad Fawcett
In Greek mythology Cassandra, the
beautiful daughter of King Priam of Troy,
was given the gift of prophesy. When she
spurned Apollo’s love, she was cursed to have
no one believe her.
University of Maryland economist Julian
Simon (1932-1998) identified the “reverseCassandra effect.” He is perhaps most famous
for his wager with Paul Ehrlich in 1980. Ehrlich, author of The population bomb, made
a number of dire predictions regarding mans
impact on the environment. Simon doubted
the validity of the data underpinning Ehrlich’s
work and famously bet him that his predictions would not come to pass. Needless to
say, Simon won the bet. Countering Ehrlich’s
position with facts, he was bemused that they
and winning the bet failed to counter the influence of Ehrlich’s position on public opinion:
People were inclined to believe the very
worst about anything and everything; they
were immune to contrary evidence just as if
they’d been medically vaccinated against the
force of fact. Furthermore, there seemed to
be a bizarre reverse-Cassandra effect operating in the universe: whereas the mythical
Cassandra spoke the awful truth and wasn’t
believed, these days “experts” spoke awful
falsehoods and they were believed.
This “reverse-Cassandra effect” seems
to operate in a similar fashion in policing.
Continued purveyors of police malfeasance
appear to have captured the minds of the public regardless of what the science, research,
inquiry or jury finds when analyzing a use
of force incident. Some authors have opined
that the low rate of convictions for police officers alleged to have used unnecessary and/
or excessive force is due to some nefarious
relationship between the police and those
prosecuting them.
If the defence used expert witnesses to
explain why an officer failed to hear, see or
do something they are castigated as unethical
sympathizers of the police. Explaining use
of force by police using facts supported by
research is akin to saying anything contrary
to former Vice President Al Gore’s Academy
Award winning film An Inconvenient Truth
(2006). If you question the science underpinning the film you may find yourself maligned
as a global warming denier.
Many readers will be familiar with the
work of Dr. Daniel Simons and his colleagues
at the University of Illinois regarding cognition. Their studies of inattentional blindness
and change blindness (1999) have helped
to explain why police officers (or anyone
else) failed to perceive things clearly in their
visual field. Reaction time studies have been
a favourite subject of experimental psychologists since the mid-nineteenth century and the
May 2011

implications have been incorporated into
police training through the work of Bruce
Siddle and PPCT Management Systems. Lt.
Col. Dave Grossman, Pulitzer Prize nominated author of On killing: The psychological
costs of learning to kill in war and society
(1996), provided police trainers with insights
into combat performance and arousal states.
Sport psychology contributed aspects of
mental imagery applicable to law enforcement. Dr. Bill Lewinski, a tenured full professor at Minnesota State University, Mankato,
has conducted studies directly related to
use of force by police. Dr. Joan Vickers of
the University of Calgary whose specialty
includes cognition, vision and gaze control,
motor learning, motor control, decision-making and decision-training, has also conducted
research that has applications for training law
enforcement and assists in understanding use
of force incidents. Dr. Christine Hall, MD has
conducted research into the phenomenon of
excited delirium, which has direct implications for law enforcement.
Despite the objective, scientifically sound
research of these and others the reverse14

Cassandra effective abounds. For example,
notwithstanding the documented descriptions
of excited delirium in research dating back to
the 1800s, some assert that the syndrome is
a police fabrication to cover up their abuses.
Another example can be seen in the
debate over hazards associated with prone
restraint, originally postulated in the late
1980s, which gained significant traction.
Police agencies and manufactures scrambled
to find techniques and technologies designed
to avoid prone restraint while still controlling
a violently resisting subject. Later research
cast significant doubt on the validity of the
original study and many consider the hypothesis “debunked.” The reverse-Cassandra call
assails research that contradicts the original
study as biased and not applicable to “realworld” incidents involving prone restraint.
Credible police trainers stay current with
research in a variety of fields to ensure their
officers and the public they serve receive the
best training possible: training that is medically, legally and tactically sound.
In many cases police trainers have been
well in front of issues. In British Columbia,
for example, the Use of Force Working Group
chaired by Vancouver Police Department S/
Sgt. Joel Johnston made a number of recommendations on conducted energy weapons.
The report predated the events at Vancouver
International Airport (YVR) investigated by
the Braidwood Inquiry but sadly wasn’t acted
upon until the commission adopted a number
of the recommendations years later.
Police trainers have informed themselves
of evolving case law and threat trends and
have incorporated those lessons into the
training they provide. Police agencies routinely provide instruction in ground fighting,
edged weapons and multiple assailants, having identified the need by analyzing assaults
on police officers and the public in general.
Police trainers have been actively seeking out
new technologies and techniques intended to
prevent injuries to everyone, not just police
officers.
In order to mitigate some of the barriers to performance identified by the various
researches described earlier, many police
agencies have incorporated stress inoculation training, using simulated munitions,
role players and simulated environments.
Many researchers whose work has buttressed police training have not had a horse
in the race. Much of the research was conducted without law enforcement in mind
and simply sought to understand the limits
of human performance regardless of one’s
profession.
Those who criticize the police and their
training appear to have forgotten, if they ever
knew, that law enforcement personnel learn
blood lessons. Someone – an officer, suspect,
Blue Line Magazine

or member of the public – was injured or
killed, causing us to reflect on the appropriateness of the techniques, tactics or technologies involved. Police agencies typically
do not stand idle after a tragedy but actively
seek out methods to prevent its repetition.
This proactive approach has been criticized
as being too rash and failing to exercise due
diligence in adopting new techniques, tactics
or technologies. The same cycle of criticism
followed the incorporation of oleoresin capsicum spray, conducted energy weapons and
maximum restraint technologies, to name
but a few. The spectre of bias is routinely
raised regarding the research and field tests
conducted prior to implementation.
The reverse-Cassandra cry demands more
research (one wonders when there will ever
be enough research done to satisfy the critics)
and in so doing risks officer and public safety
in the interval. Police academies do not churn
out automatons seeking an opportunity to
visit violence upon someone at the slightest
provocation. Rather, they turn out members
of the community who love it so much that
they are willing to don a uniform and put their
own safety on the line to protect residents
from those who would prey upon them.
The reverse-Cassandra call criticizes
the facts and scientific research upon which
modern police training is based primarily on
emotion and, perhaps, it is that emotional appeal that makes the call so resilient. George
Orwell warned of the intolerance of emotion
over the preference of law:
In a society in which there is no law and

Blue Line Magazine

in theory no compulsion, the only arbiter
of behaviour is public opinion. But public
opinion, because of the tremendous urge to
conformity in gregarious animals, is less
tolerant than any system of law.
The Canadian law enforcement experience has been similar to that of Simon:
facts developed through rigorous scientific
research fail to counter the influence of
those who assume the worst when it comes
to police use of force. One can ignore the
science, research and blood lessons upon
which modern police training is founded
but the inconvenient truth is the judge or
jury, devoid of emotional second guessing,

15

when presented with the facts regarding
the limitations of human performance under stress, tend to get it right. The officers
involved typically acted reasonably when
examined through a lens informed with an
understanding of the limitations of human
performance under stress.
Sgt. Brad Fawcett is a 20 year veteran officer and courtqualified use of force expert who is currently seconded as
a police academy use of force, physical training and drill
instructor. Contract Brad, a former Blue Line contributor,
at bfawcett@jibc.ca for more information.

may 2011